The Vegas Golden Knights wouldn’t be as relevant today if it weren’t for Dale Tallon
It’s February 2020 and I’m sitting at home reevaluating the Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Draft after seeing some conversation among friends regarding how fair/unfair the expansion draft criteria are.
By now, we all know the Vegas success story — a first-year expansion team making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final and being a powerhouse team immediately in the NHL.
But how much would that have changed if we could just change one player that was protected from the expansion draft?
Well, pretty much all of it.
Let me start this off by saying a lot of this article is based on hindsight and speculation. However, the one part that isn’t hindsight is just how foolish Dale Tallon and the Florida Panthers’ moves were at the Expansion Draft.
They were awful moves at the time they made them. They were awful moves six months later. Three years later? Yup, they’re still awful.
But the one part I don’t think people realize is the magnitude of which these moves impacted not only the Vegas Golden Knights, but the entire league over the past few years.
It’s amazing how much a single choice has impacted hockey forever, so let’s see what would’ve happened if Tallon and the Florida Panthers did the simple, expected move instead of gifting Vegas their first line.
The Choice That Changed Everything
At the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Florida Panthers made a single choice that would turn the Vegas Golden Knights from being a regular expansion team trading their top players to stock up draft picks for the long-term into a perennial playoff contender.
That choice? Opting to protect defender Alex Petrovic. This left them exposing 30 goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault and top six forward Reilly Smith.
But, even with their decision to go with four defenders and four forwards, the Panthers were only at risk of losing either Marchessault or Smith as an expansion draft could only pick one player off a team.
A few teams made deals to protect players they had to expose, giving up draft picks and/or prospects to ensure that their players wouldn’t get picked. Florida could’ve done that to protect both Smith and Marchessault if they wanted to, or even one or the other.
And that’s just what the Florida Panthers did! They traded assets to Vegas to ensure that they’d take a specific player.
The only problem? The Florida Panthers traded Reilly Smith to the Golden Knights in exchange for a fourth round pick and for the Golden Knights to take Jonathan Marchessault in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft.
In short, Florida gave Vegas two-thirds of their first line for the whopping price of a fourth round draft pick.
Undoing Florida’s Errors
Let’s imagine a world where Tallon and the Panthers did the sensible thing and exposed Petrovic, allowing them to protect both Smith and Marchessault. This also allows them to protect an additional forward, so we’re going to say they do the reasonable thing and protect Colton Sceviour.
After those changes, it means that Vegas would have to choose one of the following players: D Alex Petrovic, F Derek MacKenzie, D Jason Demers, F Jussi Jokinen, G Roberto Luongo, and two free agents: F Jaromir Jagr and F Thomas Vanek.
Of those, it’s likely that they’re taking Alex Petrovic, who was at the time a solid bottom pairing defender with some potential upside.
That now leaves Vegas with the following forwards:
David Perron - William Karlsson - James Neal
Erik Haula - Vadim Shipachyov - Alex Tuch
Brendan Leipsic - Cody Eakin - Brandon Pirri
William Carrier - Oscar Lindberg - Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare
So what are the likely outcomes after all of this is said and done?
7 Key Changes That Would’ve Happened
While there is no way of definitively knowing how Vegas would do, there are some areas where we can make safe assumptions. Let’s go over the biggest story lines from their inaugural season to now that would be vastly different.
1. The Vegas Golden Knights miss the playoffs
If Vegas didn’t have Smith and Marchessault, they’re closer to being one of the worst teams in the league than they are to being a playoff team.
They would only have one legitimate top six forward line and they wouldn’t have the talent available to replace them. Instead, you’d see third liners move up to the second line and fourth liners move up to the third line.
2. William Karlsson still has a breakout season, but it’s not as good
William Karlsson is a good player who wasn’t getting ice time in Columbus. With Vegas, he’d still be given the opportunity and likely would be playing on the first line with Perron and Neal.
Both Perron and Neal are good players, but Karlsson wouldn’t be getting set up as much as he was with Marchessault and Smith. Additionally, Neal is more of a shoot-first player, so it’s unlikely Karlsson would actually be used as a trigger man and instead more of a set-up player for Neal.
You’re probably looking at his 2018–19 season for his totals, around 20 goals and 50 points.
3. The Vegas Golden Knights sell at the trade deadline
Even if Vegas was a bubble playoff team (which is a big if in this scenario), they’re still likely selling their top UFAs so they can set up the franchise for long-term success.
This means that both David Perron and James Neal, two thirds of their current top line, would be shipped out for prospects/picks. And that’s not a bad thing. Honestly, it’s what everyone expected to happen and as a result they probably have a few extra high picks in the 2018 NHL Draft to use.
Oh, and this also means they’re not adding at the trade deadline. They’re not going out and paying a first, second, and third round pick for Tomas Tatar, and they’re likely not trading away a player and a pick for Ryan Reaves.
4. The Vegas Golden Knights finish in the bottom five in the league
After trading their top players away for futures, Vegas plummets towards the bottom of the standings and finish in the bottom five. This means that their first round pick that they didn’t trade for Tomas Tatar is now a lottery pick and they end up with one of the top eight players selected in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.
5. Vegas Doesn’t Land Paul Stastny as a UFA
Unless they were willing to shell out a lot of money, it’s unlikely that Vegas would land Stastny as a free agent because Stastny wanted to go to a contender. Vegas wouldn’t be one if they were loaded up on prospects, so Pauly Walnuts finds a home elsewehre
6. Vegas Doesn’t Trade For Max Pacioretty
Vegas would definitely not trade Nick Suzuki and Tomas Tatar for Pacioretty in this scenario. This is partially because they wouldn’t have Tatar to begin with, but also because they wouldn’t be looking to add NHL stars to load up for playoff runs.
7. Vegas Doesn’t Trade For Mark Stone
In a similar vein to the Pacioretty trade, the Golden Knights wouldn’t be trading for Mark Stone either. Instead, they’d be focusing on growing their insanely deep prospect talent pool that is just starting to break into the NHL.
Now that we’re through all that, let’s imagine the Golden Knights roster is now packed with young NHL talent. They have Cody Glass and Nick Suzuki playing for them along with Erik Brannstrom on their back end.
They also have one of the top 8 2018 NHL Entry Draft picks playing for them, and likely one of the top 8 2019 NHL Entry Draft picks playing for them as well since they would’ve missed the playoffs in 2019 as well.
Instead of everyone talking about how good Vegas is now, how the expansion draft rules were unfair, how Seattle will come in and do the same thing, etc., everyone is talking about how deep of a prospect pool the Golden Knights have.
Most importantly, the Golden Knights would just be getting to the point where they’re relevant in the playoff conversation now as their young talent has begun to graduate into the NHL.
The amount of hockey history that would change based off of a single expansion draft protection choice is staggering.
Not only are Dale Tallon’s errs at the NHL Expansion Draft up there for the worst transactions a GM has ever made in NHL history, they’re also up their for the most impactful decisions that the NHL has ever seen.
Think about how successful the Vegas franchise has been. Think about the large, passionate fan base that exists there. Think about how strong their lineup is and how they have one of the deepest forward cores in the league today.
None of that would exist to the extent that it is today if it weren’t for Dale Tallon and the Florida Panthers choosing to protect a third pairing defender over two top six forwards.
